Same edge, every trial. Watch what probability, payoff, position size, and trade management actually do over volume.
EV per flip
$50
Per-flip swing (SD)
$150
Total flips run
0
Bankroll
$0
Actual avg / flip
$0
Deviation from EV
–
Max drawdown (actual)
$0
Worst losing streak
0 flips
If N losses hit in a row
Running average profit per flip — converges to EV as trials grow
Bankroll over time — swings scale directly with contracts
Monte Carlo drawdown analysis
Runs many independent simulated sequences from scratch and averages the worst drawdown across all of them — smooths out the luck of any single run and shows you a realistic worst case.
Staged position sizing
Contracts automatically step up once the simulated bankroll crosses a threshold — models scaling up as the account actually grows, instead of a flat contract count the whole way.
Configurable multi-stage scale-out: total contracts, up to two scale-out stages, then a final runner. Each stage locks in profit on what's left once it's been hit, so a working trade can't go back to a loss.
Miss
-$500
60% of trades
Stage 1 only
+$700
24% of trades
Stage 2 only
+$1,000
10.4% of trades
Full runner
+$1,300
4.8% of trades
EV per trade
$0
Trades run
0
Bankroll
$0
Max drawdown (actual)
$0
Worst losing streak
0 trades
If N misses hit in a row
Running average per trade — converges to EV as trials grow
Bankroll over time
Monte Carlo drawdown analysis
Runs many independent simulated sequences from scratch and averages the worst drawdown across all of them — smooths out the luck of any single run and shows you a realistic worst case.
Staged position sizing
Position size steps up once the simulated bankroll crosses a threshold, keeping the same stage structure and R-multiples defined above — models scaling contracts as the account actually grows.
The Coin Flip tab is independent trials — every flip has the same odds no matter what came before. Real markets aren't like that: win rate clusters into stretches (hot streaks, cold streaks) before shifting again. This tab models that with two regimes and lets you compare the real drawdown risk against an independent-trial model with the identical long-run win rate.
Blended win rate (long-run)
50%
EV per trade
$50
Per-trade swing (SD)
$150
Bankroll
$0
Trades run
0
Current regime
–
Max drawdown (actual)
$0
Worst losing streak
0 trades
If N losses hit in a row
Regime timeline — amber = hot, violet = cold (most recent trades)
Rolling win rate (20-trade window) — clustering shows up as the line drifting away from the dashed blended rate and staying there
Running average profit per trade — converges to EV as trials grow
Bankroll over time
Monte Carlo: regime-switching vs. i.i.d. at the same win rate
Runs both models thousands of times at the identical blended win rate — one with hot/cold clustering, one with plain independent trials — so you can see how much the clustering alone adds to real-world drawdown risk.